Interview with Republican Canidates

To hear really great coverage of the 2010 election make sure that you tune into "Talking Michigan Politics" last week they interviewed Rick Snyder. Take a listen:

Rick Snyder on Talking Michigan Politics

Update

So I haven't posted in a while. I've taken a job as a stagehand for the Maine State Musical Theater in Brunwick, Maine and before that was in the UP for a month. I was a little out of the loop.

You all should know that Bouchard has entered the race and that Land has bowed out. She also has thrown her support behind Bouchard. $3 Million wouldn't have even made it through the primaries.

We also have two other contenders on the Democratic side. First is Alma Smith, the Yippslani State House Rep. The Second is George Perles the

former MSU football Head Coach. I will be doing a profile on Alma Wheeler Smith soon. So far on the surfice all I know is that she has the look.

Fair Tax: Part IV, Healthcare

What of Healthcare? Well, medicine and insurance would have no tax attached to it. All citizens would be required to have emergency insurance. The Fair Tax could easily provide for this. All you need is a health care account for all citizens (perhaps represented by some kind of card) and flat benefit (say $200-$250 per dependent). This would help the lower-class greatly but be of little consequence to the upper-class. You could easily shop around from a bunch of private health care providers or (if your employer covers you) use the money for medication and doctor's visits. Just yesterday, I bought Medical/Dental insurance for $75 a month (and additional dependents were not much more). Such a plan would cover a large percentage of your insurance, but you would still have to save up for other costs.

Health care can even be tied into education. We know that lower-class children are more at risk for health issues and all public schools engage in fitness testing. Why not provide a flat benefit to all students who pass the Presidential Fitness exam (and one to those who are physically unable to compete). True, they would have to be stringently run at central locations; but we could again make fitness a big deal for youth. 

This could be just the tip of the iceberg for restructuring under education. Money from the Fair Tax would be used for only two purposes: providing a standardized test to appraise the job school districts are doing and provide flat grants for individual schools. The European countries actually open up schools to total choice and we may consider doing this as well. It creates fabulous competition. I would only add the caveat that the individual transferring has to pay equivalent taxes to a local taxpayer. This is particularly important because municipalities would take over almost all basic taxes and services. Again, the flat grants would benefit poorer school districts which generally lack the means to find outside contributors. Unlike Michigan's MEAP test, the new test would have no bearing on monetary decisions. Rather, it would only provide the public with an idea of where schools are lacking and provide students with an idea of their progress.

Overall, the Fair Tax is not a perfect system. Additionally, I apologize for saying too much and not making this seven individual articles (though that may be a project for the future) However, the Fair Tax is a revolutionary alternative that is absolutely what the State of Michigan and, probably, the US needs right now. The combination of the Fair Tax and the flat benefit principle provide a simple and lethal combination to counteract our current economic and social shortcomings. It is my contention that the system I have outlined here would improve many facets of our society including: Fiscal responsibility, job creation, environmental concerns, health care, education, and more. To paraphrase conservative poster-boy Ronald Reagan, "The solution to our problem are not complex but simple and they are not easy but hard."

Fair Tax: Part III

The long and short term effects of the Fair Tax also show great promise. I never thought I would borrow Keyensian rhetoric, but we may eat a little inflation at first in order to stop long term destructive spending. In the long term, you would have people prioritizing their purchases and a stronger dollar. Also, businesses would stay in or move to an area where property and income taxes do not apply. Remember, having cultivating property and earning an income are positive economic activities, spending is a quick fix to a problem (I am hungry therefore I will buy food). We should not tax the positive activity.

Additionally, consider the how that might change us from a consumer economy to a producing economy. Gone would be the days of the US being the economic engine that keeps our competitors (India, China, EU) going. We can weaponize this Fair Tax by applying it like a medicine to the pressing issues of our country: Environmental Initiatives, Terror, Health Care, and Education.

Without forcing them, how do you get people to invest in Green products? You simply do not tax them. You would go to the store and see energy efficient light bulbs cheaper than traditional bulbs; it makes for an easy choice. Windmills, rainwater collecting tubs, and solar panels are just a few items that could be discounted. You could even measure the pros and cons of fuel efficient cars. Certainly, the discounting of wind power and alternative fuels would deal a crushing blow to our reliance on Middle East oil. I would even be in favor of the State using the shores of the Great Lakes to harvest wind energy in a taste full and useful manner (they could also serve a light houses for our miles of coast line). They could be self sustaining as area energy providers could rent them from the state to tie into their electric grid.

Fair Tax: Part II

Given how skewed the Obama tax structure is, we would probably manage to generate more tax revenue despite just using one tax. Wait a minute, would not a predetermined monthly estimate for accrued taxes on a lower class family be tantamount to social engineering? Probably. Is there a crisis of responsible citizenship in this country the likes of which we have never seen? Absolutely yes! How do you solve this? Do not hide behind a complex and governmental system stimulated by loans and aid. Rather, give some responsibility and power back to the everyday citizen by using a simple form a government; one that is still socially sensitive but proscribes to direct aid.

Nader hit the nail on the head when he suggested you could send the Wall Street bail out money to families. If you have little problem with spending an absurd amount of billions, just send half or more back to the American taxpayer. If this needs to be done, make it a flat amount. We will come back to this theme, but I feel a mild obsession with flat benefits because you accomplish the point of a social safety net by giving it to folks who actually need it while making the haves provide for their own advancement.

Another benefit of the Fair Tax and flat benefits would severely disrupt our new favorite practice: over-consumption. You would certainly think about how much you had to buy if the Fair Tax were to be initiated. So would Wall Street investor and sub-prime lenders; not just now but in the future. Yet, it is not just those groups that are to blame. I have met many people who come from lower-class backgrounds in the country. They complain about their circumstance and say they are broke, but they also own ipods, cell phones with internet access, and ridiculously expensive footwear. How much could that run you a year? $1000 to $2500 easy. 

What about the upper-middle class parent who complains about the cost of college but gives their child a weekly allowance or credit card for doing nothing? Last week, I spoke to a 14 -year old who lives in a mildly affluent suburb and receives $100 a week all year. That is $5200 to do whatever he wants. Just imagine what kind of car he will get when he turns 16. Even peers who lived in less affluent neighborhoods received between $25-$50 a week. The Fair Tax would not tax positive activities, only defend against reckless spending and provide innumerable tax dollars from those who would continue to engage in such activity. After all, it is fruitless to argue that such recklessness has not led to our current recession.

Fair Tax and Michigan: Part I

Since I didn't give the Fair Tax a fair-sake last time around, my good friend Colin has let me in on a few things here is the first installment:

Okay, so I am not stellar at solving technological issues and do not know how to make this a separate post from the comment. At any rate , here is my promised argument for the the fair tax in Michigan (though it would likely be more effective as a national program). This is not a well researched argument. Rather, it is a broad overview of fundamental issues that can be addressed. The initial argument would alienate the left and the latter arguments would alienate the right. Thus, it is such a perfect solution that it will likely never get passed.

In its base form, the fair tax is simply a universal sales tax to replace all others. Income, death, property, and other taxes you could think of would be a thing of the past. The visual simplicity of a a proposed national tax code wraps over you like a warm blanket when juxtaposed against the tens of thousands of pages the current IRS tax code entails. The proposed numbers range from a sales tax of 10-25% on all items. In the sheer Libertarian bliss of this treatment, government would not just be ripe for cuts, it would have to downsize. 

Yet, it seems reasonable to assume that such a plan is too idyllic to work in reality. As a Democrat chum of mine was told me, "you Republicans always forget that somebody has to take out the trash." Class warfare inducing statements aside, he has a point that is even more relative to the Libertarian fathers of the this movement. Let us hold onto that thought for a minute, because it is addressed by the original plan as well as my variations. A simple response might be, "not only would lower-class folks get crushed but the loss of various government agencies would lead to job cuts." 

A sound argument. After all, the welfare system would be completely shut down. However, the Fair Tax system would restructure welfare to look something like this: Once you hit a low tax bracket, we will calculate how much you would spend a month (based on traditional indicators like 'dependents') and pay you anywhere from 10%-100% of the taxes we project you to incur during this period. Note: The threshold would be lower than the current system because if less than half of the citizenry pays taxes we cease to be a country and become a trust fund AND there would be no such thing as a free lunch.

Response to Mike Cox Part Two

Hey Matt,

I know this is a bit after the fact (and I am not as up on Michigan politics as I soon will be) but I would caution you on gauging the party. I believe the recent exodus of Arlen Specter belies a deeper shift in the Republican Party. As hurtful as it may be for liberals to hear, W Bush had a policy of "taking the wind out of Democrat's sails" in terms of basic government structures. This translated to supporting the vast expansion of government in ways that people would not notice publicly. 

Surely, Obama has eclipsed W Bush in spending. However, W Bush greatly expanded government programs. Befuddled Liberals always marvel at how Bush even got close to being re-elected and the truth lies in the genius of this approach. Subconsciously, voters did not perceive a great difference between Bush and Kerry and they were right (as the American public always is is Tocqueville is to be believed but that is a far deeper matter). 

Getting back to my point. After eight years people really did want change. Then Senator Obama certainly entertained their notions and was elected easily. He offered a change far from his proposed simplification of American ideals. Rather, he is writing checks we cannot cash at a historic rate. At this point, Ron Paul seems prophetic. His devoted followers now team with duped conservatives who voted for Obama because they really believed his changes would be in their interest, they were captivated by his oration, or maybe they just felt gooey inside voting for him. 

At any rate, Paul's government simplification message has taken serious hold and these recent "Tax Parties" are no flash in the pan. A war rages inside the Republicans as to the platform of the party. I believe Specter's fleeing to the Democrats is a sure sign that his seat was getting hot and the people of his constituency were not the only ones turning up the dial. Perhaps I shall write another response as to why the Fair Tax and Nader's Bailout Plan are sheer genius. Regardless, I am excited to return to my homeland and continue our rewarding rhetoric.

Warm Regards from Virginia,
Colin

Mike Cox, Part Two

'03-'09 Michigan's Attorney General 

An Eastsider with popularity, Mike Cox has a chance to take the nomination. But it will be a long road for Cox unless he gets his head in the game. While Hoekstra has already set up a website and Lynn-Land has given us her budget (baby steps), Cox is telling GM and Chrysler LLC. that if they go bankrupt, they need to file bankruptcy in Michigan. 

If Cox had done any campaigning before this move, it would have been genius. It would have shown the voter that he understands the economic climate of Michigan and getting out of our slump isn't going to be as easy as cutting a pool toy with an axe. The hardships that we are going to face will be tough and a diverse economy will be needed in Michigan for it to prosper. Unless you are one of the four Evangelists you can't build a campaign on a letter. You can, however, use it during your campaigning to fill out your image as a pragmatist. 

If Cox and Lynn-Land are trying to catch up with Hoekstra they need to; 

Get their infrastructure together, 

Set up a website even if it just has their name, picture and bio

Get out on the road! Or at least in front of the t.v. camera. 

(Image From Detnews)

In other news: 

GOP: We can't/wont win in 2010 (Michigan Liberal, liberalucy)

Pete Hoekstra and The Waterboard: 

A small break

Hi all,

I will be taking a break from the action until Friday.

Friday: Mike Cox (Part Two)

Sunday: Virtual Image
I will analyze Hoeksra's and Cherry's websites and compare the candidates image messages to the popular press' image commentary to attempt a construction of a political image.

Breaking News: Patterson Declines to Enter Governor's Race.

L. Brooks Patterson announced to day that he will not leave his job as Okland County Exectuive to run for Governor next year.

Kathleen Gray reports in the Detroit Free Pess:

In statement from his vacation home in Florida, Patterson said, “I can not justify leaving my position as Oakland County Executive unattended for the next year and a half while I engage in a statewide campaign for Governor,” 

This opens the feild wide for the republican contenders. Even though Patterson was rummored to not wanting to join the race, the weight of his non-commital rested heavly on the prospects of the other canidates. 

Non-Viable Republicans and Other Things.

I would like to address why I haven't posted the March 14th poll data before I get into why the following candidates currently have no viability. Basing any strategy on a poll taken nineteen months the general election and fifteen months before the primary campaign, is not just ridiculous it is dangerous. At this stage in the election cycle there are still candidates entering the race. No candidate has had a chance to have their political image tested by the popular press. So far only the blogosphere (including podcasts) has really started to turn it's attention to the governors race.

By non-viable I mean to say that, currently, these candidates have not been able to present themselves in the same way that other gubernatorial candidates have presented themselves in past campaigns that have been successful. A successful image doesn't mean that a person with that political image has won; success only means that a candidate with a similar image has been seen as having a chance to win (or as viable).

Non-Viable Republican Candidates:

Ted Nugent:
The only way that celeb's usually make it to any state's executive office are though:
1. A special election. Everyone hates the current party because of the current scandal and everyone is on the ballet. Whoever gets above 30% of the vote is usually the winner.
2. Having held an elected (political) office before.
Having neither of these any bid for the nomination of the Republican party would be insane. Hell, Don Williamson is running, so he might just do it.

Semi-Non-Viable. 

Candice Miller: 

'95-'03 Michigan's Secretary of State 

'04-'09 Michigan's 10th District US House Rep. 

Whoaaahh! Hold on! 

You say: Candice Miller toally has a chance!

I say: 2000 Redistricting. 

You say: 1 Million vote margin win in 2000. 

I say: Palin Truth Squad

You say: Popular House member.

I say: Representing the the Thumb. 

You say: That's apart of Michigan. 

I say: So is the U.P. but you don't see Bart Stupak running for Governor. 

You say:  15 years political service

I say: Palin Truth Squad. 

I don't think that she has no chance but if she is seriously going to run for Governor, she has to get out there in the spotlight. For there to be two conseritives running in the primary someone has to come out swinging, at the other. If this were any other year, Miller would have a great shot at ousting a Democrat, however, unless there is a major scandal 2010 for the Democratic brand or the Republicans have a really moderate message (somethink like, pro-worker or pro-education) this should be an eleciton for the democrats. 

Pete Hoekstra

US Representative Michigan 2nd District '93-'09

The second district has been known to elect some fairly conservative representatives and Hoekstra is no exception. If George W. Bush decided not to ever be out-Texn'd (vernacular added) Peter Hoekstra has made the same pledge, he will never be out-West Michigandered. Peter, the Christian Reformer Hope graduate born in the Netherlands, after rising to a vice president at Herman Miller decided to campaign by riding his bike across the district. For his dedication, he was rewarded with a victory and another victory until now when he running for Governor.

In his long career in the House, Hoekstra, has developed a strict party line voting record that can be said to represent his district very well. Living in the second district for the most of five years now, unless you follow his twitter you know little about him.

Early Political Image:

Peter's twitter (the only Represenititve or Senator from Michigan with one) has been, both, his best friend and his worst enemy. Back in February, Hoekstra went on a trip to Iraq with Ohio represenititve John Boehner. Which would have been a fine holiday if it wasn't supposed to be a state secret ("Just landed in Baghdad"). If this does not become an attack point in the primaries, you can bet it will be in the general election.

Superficially Hoekstra looks like a Governor, however, when he speaks outside of the halls it's a different story. In his campaign announcement he sounded like a fanboy geeked out to be campaigning for something other than represenititve. I don't know if it was poor directing or something else, but it doesn't feel right. If he continues to use this type of attack rhetoric with this delivery he will not do well. His opponents will be able to combine these ads with his tweeting dependency and have a great air-head assault against him. It would be 'Look what he did as a represenititve, do you want him to mess up our state too.' We will just have to wait and see.

For now you can see this:

Virg Bernero

South Lansing Ingham County Commissioner '91-'99
68th District Representative '00-'02
23rd District Senator '03-'04
Lansing Mayor '05-'09

Although he has not yet announced his bid for Governor some have mentioned the mayor of Lansing as a potential candidate and there are some grassroots efforts to 'draft' Bernero into running in 2010 (the site has not posted since February)

Having conducted his political career in moderate obscurity, Virg Bernero suddenly jumped in the spotlight when he ran against Tony Benavides in the 2003 mayoral election. If my memory serves me right Benavides painted Bernero as a carpetbagger (“the leader you know...the leader you trust”). In the end Bernero, who had more money, lost by a mere 258 votes. Then in 2005 rallied and won 68% of the vote over Benavides who's new image was, ineffective mayor, rather than the hometown boy.

Early Political Image:

Virg Bernero is, to my knowledge, either going to stay mayor or be elected out before the 2010 election. When I called his office this morning to find which districts he represented, when I asked if there was anything else she wanted to say about the mayor staffer directed me to the city website, which focuses on his acomplishments as mayor. It looks like he will be running for Mayor in 2009 and not for for Governor in 2010.

Yesterday's cable news rounds ought to make the point clear enough. Virg Bernero is not using the kind of conciliatory or party platform rhetoric of a person who is about to enter a gubernatorial primary campaign. If He is planing on running Virg is going to have to change his campaign style quickly. Right now, the language that Bernero is using invokes small town protectionism with community salesmanship, what a mayor should sound like if s/he is about to enter a reelection campaign.

Breaking News: Peter Hoekstra to Run for Governor.

(Thats Striker Hoekstra)
Mark Hornbeck Wrote today in the Detroit News:

Congressman Peter Hoekstra said today he'll announce Monday whether he will run for governor in 2010 and strongly hinted that he will enter the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Jennifer Granholm.
The Holland Republican, who has said he won't run for a 10th term in the 2nd Congressional District, said this morning on Detroit talk radio that he'll spend the day Monday making his announcement and it's reasonable to assume he will be in.
Hoekstra said the question is, "in a blue state, how do you put together a coalition that can win? I think it's very, very doable."
Commenting on the candidacy of Democratic Lt. Gov. John Cherry, who has already said he's running, Hoekstra said: "I hope John Cherry and the Democrats run on Gov. Granholm's record ... if nothing changes, nothing changes."
He said neither party can be blamed for the woes of the auto industry, but he said the state's chief executive should have seen the domestic auto decline coming and done more to diversify the state's economic base and to make Michigan a better place to do business.

This is Congressman Hoekstra:

Andy Dillon

17th District Representative 04-09
Current Speaker of Michigan's House Of Representatives.

Andy Dillon has not yet announced that he will officially be running for Governor, but last month he declined funding for his reelection campaign, so I think we all know whats up.

Andy earned a reputation in Michigan for being one tough cookie, when, in October of 2007, Andy voted in favor of HB 5194. HB 5194 was a bill that increased Michigan's taxes to cover the 2008 budget gap. The measure put in place to replace the Single Business Tax was to increase service taxes. After a long debate and with bi-partisan support HB 5194 passed the House and Senate. Then came the Pig.

The "Michigan's Taxpayers Alliance" an organization set up by Leon Drolet to recall any state law maker who raised taxes in Michigan. You might remember Drolet from the popular Michigan Civil Rights Initiative (Proposal Two). If you don't remember the MCRI you might remember this:


Any way Drolet, was 779 signatures short of holding the recall election because many were deemed to be either forged or obtained by out of district petitioners. After Terri Lynn Land refused to recount the signatures, Drolet eventually took the case to a Federal judge in Cincinnati who ruled in favor of Drolet. The matter was eventually put on the 2008 ballot and was rejected.

Early Political Image:

It seems that he would be able to go through a tough campaign, but he look's a lot like Mitt Rommney. It would do him well to get into the race NOW. If he doesn't Cherry (who has already received many endorsements from county commissioners) will blow right past him in fundraising and support.

It will be interesting to see how much money people give during this race. With the economy the way it has been for the past 10 odd years and large donors tapped out from the Presidential campaign, this might be the year that thrift might get you somewhere.

Canidate Spotlight: Mike Cox

Michigan's Attorney General '03-'09

A Republican with name recognition who has built a career on...well we don't know. He is new to my public mind and few of us really know his positions, outside of being a conservative. He needs to take a page out of John Cherry's book and campaign so hard that he will make Devos look like a PTA president candidate.

From his Michigan.gov page:

Born in 1961, Mike Cox graduated from Detroit's Catholic Central High School and entered the Marines. After graduating from the University of Michigan Law School in 1989, he went on to work in the Wayne County Prosecutor's Office in Detroit. Cox prosecuted organized crime cases ranging from public corruption to drug and gang-related homicides. In addition to hundreds of bench trials, he tried more than 125 jury trials, with a conviction rate in excess of 90 percent. In 2000, Cox was appointed Director of the Wayne County Prosecutor's Homicide Unit, which prosecuted approximately two-thirds of all homicides in Michigan

Canidate: Don Williamson (D)

Flint Mayor '03-Feb. 8th '09

Political Image:

All we know about Don, is that he won a shady election with a shady campaign in 2003, his wife gave $2,500 to the Bush campaign in 2004 and has been sued enough times, as mayor, that he will never need a tailor again. In 2007 Flint was routinely called one of the most dangerous places to live and in 2009 he both announced that he was running for Governor and resigned as mayor.

I hope, for his own sake, that he drops out of the race as soon as he can. The Democratic Party doesn't need anymore Blagovitch enBurrisments.

Candidate Spotlight: Terri Lynn Land

'89-91 Kent County Republican Chairperson. 

'92-'00 Kent County Clerk 

'04  State Co-chair of George W. Bush's Re-election campaign. 

'04 Delegate at the 2004 RNCC. 

'03-'09 Michigan's Secretary of State

Early Political Image: 

As West Michiganian and a woman, Terri Land holds a special place in election. As a moderate republican she may have a tough time in the primary, however, if she wins it would give the Republican party an advantage in the general election. Having been the secretary of state for over 5 years and not received the moniker 'Scary Terri,' tells us as much as her record, she doesn't create to much trouble. I know little about her reputation with in the party, but I feel that she has played the role of peace keeper for some time. 

For now the race is wide open on the Repubican side, especially if she can get a better staff photographer. (This one was the best that I could find on her campaign website)

Terri Lynn Land

Candidate Spotlight: John D. Cherry Jr.

'83-'86, 79th district Representative

'87-'94, 29th district Senator 

'94-'98, 28th district Senator 

Ran for the US House in '92, 5th district.  

Democratic convention delegate; '96, '00, '04

Lt. Governor '03-'10

Early political image:

Since we are still 19 months out, the impact that any candidate can make on the perception of him/her by the popular press is limited. At this stage only the pundits and the local politic nerds are paying any attention to this race. John Cherry is in a unique position, the political good will that envelops Ghranholm will rub off on Cherry in the early stages of the actual primary campaign, since he has decided to run on his work with in the Executive branch. 

It seems that the Cherry campaign is currently deciding to present John as a 'conservationist,' which works for him. Along with his age, history and without major support from progressive environmental groups it would be difficult for the campaign to present him as an 'environmentalist.' Since we are in the early stages of the campaign (in this stage the voter shapes his/her political image with what little information s/he is given, namely physical appearance) I will be superficial for one moment, Cherry can pull off a Teddy Roosevelt/Taft conservationalist/conservatism. 

I could not find any current polling data. 

The Canidate List

Democrats:

 

Announced: 

Don Williamson 

John Cherry

Speculative

Andy Dillon 

Virg Bernero 

George Perlis 

Mark Hackel 

Robert Ficano 

Republicans: 

Announced

Terri Land 

Mike Cox 

Speculative

Peter Hoekstra 

Candice Miller

L. Brooks Patterson

Mike Rogers 

Mike Bouchard

Joe Schwarz 

Mike Bishop

David Brandon

Ted Nugent 

Currently it seems that national politics are dominating the netwaves. With Hoekstra and Dillion still on the side line the '10 race is to far off in the distance for much news to be made. 

UPDATE:

Philgoblue reported today over at west michigan rising that Andy Dillon is not seeking re-election for his House seat in 2010. Meaning that he most certianly will be running for the Governer's office in '10. 

Full Article: 

Reid Wilson: Mich. Rep. won't face powerful Dem. (The Hill)