Interview with Republican Canidates

To hear really great coverage of the 2010 election make sure that you tune into "Talking Michigan Politics" last week they interviewed Rick Snyder. Take a listen:

Rick Snyder on Talking Michigan Politics

Non-Viable Republicans and Other Things.

I would like to address why I haven't posted the March 14th poll data before I get into why the following candidates currently have no viability. Basing any strategy on a poll taken nineteen months the general election and fifteen months before the primary campaign, is not just ridiculous it is dangerous. At this stage in the election cycle there are still candidates entering the race. No candidate has had a chance to have their political image tested by the popular press. So far only the blogosphere (including podcasts) has really started to turn it's attention to the governors race.

By non-viable I mean to say that, currently, these candidates have not been able to present themselves in the same way that other gubernatorial candidates have presented themselves in past campaigns that have been successful. A successful image doesn't mean that a person with that political image has won; success only means that a candidate with a similar image has been seen as having a chance to win (or as viable).

Non-Viable Republican Candidates:

Ted Nugent:
The only way that celeb's usually make it to any state's executive office are though:
1. A special election. Everyone hates the current party because of the current scandal and everyone is on the ballet. Whoever gets above 30% of the vote is usually the winner.
2. Having held an elected (political) office before.
Having neither of these any bid for the nomination of the Republican party would be insane. Hell, Don Williamson is running, so he might just do it.

Semi-Non-Viable. 

Candice Miller: 

'95-'03 Michigan's Secretary of State 

'04-'09 Michigan's 10th District US House Rep. 

Whoaaahh! Hold on! 

You say: Candice Miller toally has a chance!

I say: 2000 Redistricting. 

You say: 1 Million vote margin win in 2000. 

I say: Palin Truth Squad

You say: Popular House member.

I say: Representing the the Thumb. 

You say: That's apart of Michigan. 

I say: So is the U.P. but you don't see Bart Stupak running for Governor. 

You say:  15 years political service

I say: Palin Truth Squad. 

I don't think that she has no chance but if she is seriously going to run for Governor, she has to get out there in the spotlight. For there to be two conseritives running in the primary someone has to come out swinging, at the other. If this were any other year, Miller would have a great shot at ousting a Democrat, however, unless there is a major scandal 2010 for the Democratic brand or the Republicans have a really moderate message (somethink like, pro-worker or pro-education) this should be an eleciton for the democrats. 

Pete Hoekstra

US Representative Michigan 2nd District '93-'09

The second district has been known to elect some fairly conservative representatives and Hoekstra is no exception. If George W. Bush decided not to ever be out-Texn'd (vernacular added) Peter Hoekstra has made the same pledge, he will never be out-West Michigandered. Peter, the Christian Reformer Hope graduate born in the Netherlands, after rising to a vice president at Herman Miller decided to campaign by riding his bike across the district. For his dedication, he was rewarded with a victory and another victory until now when he running for Governor.

In his long career in the House, Hoekstra, has developed a strict party line voting record that can be said to represent his district very well. Living in the second district for the most of five years now, unless you follow his twitter you know little about him.

Early Political Image:

Peter's twitter (the only Represenititve or Senator from Michigan with one) has been, both, his best friend and his worst enemy. Back in February, Hoekstra went on a trip to Iraq with Ohio represenititve John Boehner. Which would have been a fine holiday if it wasn't supposed to be a state secret ("Just landed in Baghdad"). If this does not become an attack point in the primaries, you can bet it will be in the general election.

Superficially Hoekstra looks like a Governor, however, when he speaks outside of the halls it's a different story. In his campaign announcement he sounded like a fanboy geeked out to be campaigning for something other than represenititve. I don't know if it was poor directing or something else, but it doesn't feel right. If he continues to use this type of attack rhetoric with this delivery he will not do well. His opponents will be able to combine these ads with his tweeting dependency and have a great air-head assault against him. It would be 'Look what he did as a represenititve, do you want him to mess up our state too.' We will just have to wait and see.

For now you can see this:

Candidate Spotlight: John D. Cherry Jr.

'83-'86, 79th district Representative

'87-'94, 29th district Senator 

'94-'98, 28th district Senator 

Ran for the US House in '92, 5th district.  

Democratic convention delegate; '96, '00, '04

Lt. Governor '03-'10

Early political image:

Since we are still 19 months out, the impact that any candidate can make on the perception of him/her by the popular press is limited. At this stage only the pundits and the local politic nerds are paying any attention to this race. John Cherry is in a unique position, the political good will that envelops Ghranholm will rub off on Cherry in the early stages of the actual primary campaign, since he has decided to run on his work with in the Executive branch. 

It seems that the Cherry campaign is currently deciding to present John as a 'conservationist,' which works for him. Along with his age, history and without major support from progressive environmental groups it would be difficult for the campaign to present him as an 'environmentalist.' Since we are in the early stages of the campaign (in this stage the voter shapes his/her political image with what little information s/he is given, namely physical appearance) I will be superficial for one moment, Cherry can pull off a Teddy Roosevelt/Taft conservationalist/conservatism. 

I could not find any current polling data.